The International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that Windows Phone / Windows 10 Mobile will not grow its market share until 2019. Low shipment forecasts and slower growth is largely attributed for Windows Phone and “alternative platforms”.
From Microsoft’s approach of making Windows Phone $71 lower than Android (Windows Phone’s ASP is $148 while Android’s ASP is $219), their shipments grew up to 34.9 million units in 2014. However, IDC forecasts a year-over-year decline of -10.2% in 2015 followed by further decline in 2016.
The prediction is based on Microsoft’s lack of OEM partner support. In 4 years, Windows Phone´s market share is expected to only grow from 2.2% to 2.3%.
“Despite all the effort Microsoft has put into the launch of Windows 10, IDC does not expect Microsoft’s share of the smartphone OS market to grow much over the coming years” IDC comments the prediction.
Since the introduction of Windows Phone, it has struggled to gain numbers over the years. In November, Windows Phone market share has even dropped to 1.7%.
Unless Microsoft makes an astounding development on Windows Phone in terms of applications or key aspects, IDC’s prediction may become true.
IDC’s reports on other mobile phones
Market share for Android and iOS phones is expected to increase persistently as IDC predicts unsuccessful attempts of “alternative platforms” to enter the market. Android’s market share is assumed to grow from 81% to 82% over the forecast period. Meanwhile, iOS is expected to remain at a level of around 14-15%.
For IDC, 2015 was the first full year of single-digit worldwide smartphone growth and maintaining momentum will depend on several factors. According to Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, “the main driver has been and will continue to be the success of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as replacement buyers.”
In terms of geographical impact, IDC has maintained its view that China has largely become a replacement market. IDC forecasts shipment growth in China to be in low single digits.
The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region is expected to have the highest growth of shipments and is envisioned to increase by 50% year over year. With this forecast, “hot growth” markets like India and Indonesia will be surpassed over time.