Bill Gates is setting an end date for one of the world’s most influential philanthropic organizations. The Microsoft co-founder announced May 8 that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will permanently shut down by December 31, 2045. This move significantly accelerates the foundation’s original plan, which, as Gates previously indicated to Reuters in 2018, involved spending its resources within decades following the deaths of both Bill and Melinda French Gates, rather than operating indefinitely.
Instead of preserving its endowment, the foundation will now spend it down—valued at $75.2 billion at the end of 2023 per its official website—plus nearly all of Gates’s remaining personal fortune over the next two decades.
This represents a massive injection of over $200 billion into global health and development, increasing annual spending from roughly $6 billion to $9 billion. Gates explained the rationale in his announcement, emphasizing a belief that focused, accelerated spending can achieve core goals faster. Talking to The New York Times, he noted past successes, stating the world went from 10 million annual childhood deaths to five million during the foundation’s first phase, and expressed confidence in further progress: “Over the next 20 years, can you cut that in half again? The answer is: Absolutely.”
The decision lands amid a turbulent period for global aid. Gates acknowledged the timing might seem counterintuitive, stating, “You could say this announcement is not very timely.” As the Trump administration pursues deep cuts to U.S. foreign aid—potentially costing hundreds of thousands of lives according to a Lancet study—and funding from European nations also faces pressure.
A separate Nature analysis suggested a full cessation of US aid could cause 25 million excess deaths over 15 years. Yet, Gates remains profoundly optimistic, driven by advancements in the foundation’s R&D pipeline and the potential of artificial intelligence. He stressed the moral imperative, calling inaction on major diseases like TB and HIV criminal.
Context Of Crisis And Change
The foundation’s accelerated timeline unfolds against a backdrop of declining global generosity. Gates highlighted the severity of recent U.S. aid reductions in his New York Times interview, noting they were far deeper than anticipated and could reverse progress, potentially increasing annual child deaths back towards six million.
He fears these cuts, exemplified by impacts on HIV prevention funding in Mozambique could mean, starkly, “Because of these cuts, millions of additional deaths of kids.” This pullback isn’t isolated; Gates noted similar pressures in the U.K., where, according to CNN, Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed cuts, and in Germany and France, often squeezed by defense spending and domestic budget issues.
Beyond government funding, the philanthropic world itself has shifted. The Giving Pledge era appears less dominant, and key figures are adjusting plans. Warren Buffett intends for his children to manage his future giving, rather than adding significantly more to the Gates Foundation post-mortem, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Following her 2021 divorce, Melinda French Gates left the foundation in May 2024 to establish her own philanthropic efforts, receiving $12.5 billion as part of that transition. Bill Gates’s own extensive giving has also seen his personal wealth rank dip below peers like Steve Ballmer.
Furthermore, the “miraculous period” of global development seen in the early 2000s appears to have slowed. Progress on reducing extreme poverty has largely stalled since 2014, according to analysis by The Economist’s Mark Suzman, and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals are significantly off track.
Gates attributes some of this to specific crises like civil wars in Africa and the lingering economic and health system impacts of the pandemic, but remains hopeful, viewing the current downturn as temporary: “I don’t think we’re going to have administration after administration who cuts and cuts and cuts and cuts these things. I see it as a four- to six-year interruption. And if we zoom out and think about 20 years from now — I do think we’ll cut childhood deaths, despite all this, because the Golden Rule was not repealed.”
A $200 Billion Bet On Innovation
The core rationale for the 2045 closure is to maximize impact now by deploying resources faster. Gates believes the foundation’s most crucial work lies in its current R&D pipeline, citing potentially “mind-blowing” tuberculosis advancements and progress toward a genetic cure for H.I.V..
Over the next 20 years, the foundation aims for near-parity between rich and poor countries in maternal mortality (“Well, whenever somebody says zero, that’s an idealistic thing. You never get to zero. The U.S. is not at zero. But you can get to near-parity — where the poor-country rate and the rich-country rate is within a factor of two. That is very doable.”) and seeks to halve child deaths again, building on the reduction from 10 million to 5 million annually during its first two decades.
Gates remains committed to eradicating diseases like malaria and TB, and highlighted tools like the HIV preventative Lenacapavir. Addressing malnutrition through innovations like microbiome research involving B. infantis, as explained by Gates Philanthropy Partners, is deemed paramount.
Transforming African agriculture is another key goal, aiming to double productivity (“doubling African agricultural productivity should be pretty straightforward.”) through technologies like gene-edited seeds, despite earlier pushback against GMOs.
Across these efforts, Gates sees artificial intelligence as a crucial lever. “I wish I didn’t have to rely on that magic wand [AI], but I guarantee you that it is real. I’m not making that up.” He envisions AI tutors, health advisors, and farm support reaching remote populations via basic phones, even in local dialects, accelerating progress far faster than market forces alone would allow, a contrast to his past skepticism about tech solutions like Google’s Loon internet balloons.
Giving It All Away
The plan to close the foundation aligns with Gates’s long-held philosophy, influenced by Andrew Carnegie, that vast fortunes should return to society. This commitment was reiterated in January 2023, when Gates stated his intention to liquidate his assets for the foundation.
At that time, he also addressed criticism regarding his extensive farmland ownership (tracked by the Land Report 100), explaining it was a professionally managed investment aimed at productivity and job creation, representing less than 4% of his investment group’s assets. The current announcement solidifies this commitment, betting that deploying his wealth within the next two decades is the most effective path forward.
However, the planned closure raises questions about long-term sustainability. Experts quoted by Devex expressed concern, with one stating, “While the injection of funds is welcome, the planned closure creates uncertainty for the global health ecosystem. Governments and other funders will need to step up significantly to fill the gap long-term.”
The foundation’s massive spending increase aims to make significant headway on its goals before 2045, betting that innovation and focused investment can overcome current headwinds and leave a lasting legacy, even as the institution itself dissolves.
