The global PC market is projected to return to its 2019 shipment levels by next year. According to Canalys, the PC industry has undergone seven consecutive quarters of decline but is now positioned for a resurgence. The catalyst for growth includes a stronger holiday season forecast and an improvement in the global economic outlook, evidenced by diminishing inflation rates.
Strong Holiday Season to Kickstart Growth
The turnaround for the global PC market is expected to commence in the current quarter, with an anticipated 5% growth. This positive change marks the end of a challenging period that stretched through 2022 and 2023. Canalys attributes the imminent improvement to the upcoming holiday season and a stabilizing macroeconomic climate.
For the year 2024, Canalys estimates shipments of PCs to reach approximately 267 million units, an 8% increase in contrast to the current year's figures. Contributing factors to this growth include an anticipated Windows refresh cycle and the entrance of AI-capable and ARM-based devices in the market.
Innovations Driving Market Revitalization
Ben Yeh, an analyst from Canalys, remarks on the significant impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the PC industry. He notes, “Leading players across OEMs, processor manufacturers, and operating system providers are focused on delivering new AI-capable models in 2024.”
These innovations are expected to invigorate demand, particularly within the commercial sector. AI-capable PCs are forecasted to comprise approximately 19% of total PC shipments in 2024. The lineup includes all M-series Mac products and the emerging offerings in the Windows ecosystem. As AI functionality becomes a standard feature, a swift acceleration in the development and uptake of these PCs is anticipated by Canalys.
Regionally, Latin America is anticipated to experience the highest growth, with an impressive 12.2% projected for 2024. The Middle East and Africa regions are expected to follow closely with 11.6% growth. Notably, the Middle East and Africa have shown resilience this year with a minimal decline of 0.1%. In contrast, Greater China, which has contracted the most this year by 18.0%, is projected to see only modest growth of 4.3% next year. Meanwhile, North America, which declined by 9.7% this year, is on track to potentially grow by 7.3% in 2024.
Canalys' forecast exemplifies the dynamic nature of the global PC market, influenced heavily by technological advances and economic variables. The tech industry and investors alike will be closely monitoring these trends as they evolve into the next calendar year. Earlier this year, Canalys forecast that PC shipments in Western Europe have bottomed out and will stabilize during the rest of 2023 before moving into recovery through 2024. The report also highlights some positive trends in the PC market, such as the growth of gaming PCs, premium devices and workstations, which offer higher margins and customer loyalty.
